Anticipatory action triggers deliver assistance 11 days earlier on average

Pre-agreed forecast triggers with pre-positioned stock shortened the gap between hazard onset and first distribution from 14 days to 3 days.

Published 7/30/2026

The model requires three components agreed before the season: a validated forecast trigger, pre-committed and ring-fenced funding, and a standard operating procedure naming who authorises release. Where funding was not ring-fenced in advance, the trigger fired but disbursement still took over a week.

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